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A model comparison approach shows stronger support for economic models of fertility decline

The demographic transition is an ongoing global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality rates are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Despite intense interest in the causes of the transition, especially with respect to decreasing fertility rates, the underlying mechanisms motivating it are still subject to much debate. The literature is crowded with competing [...]

Looking at Some Other Externalities Besides Pollution: Population Growth and Consumption

A textbook example of an unaccounted-for consequence (externality) of commercial or industrial activity is the production of pollutants where neither the producer nor the buyer bears the cost of using common environmental resources. Dasgupta and Ehrlich offer a theoretical analysis of externalities in two other areas of modern life—human fertility and material consumption. For example, [...]

Who Gets a Swiss Passport? A Natural Experiment in Immigrant Discrimination

We study discrimination against immigrants using microlevel data from Switzerland, where, until recently, some municipalities used referendums to decide on the citizenship applications of foreign residents. We show that naturalization decisions vary dramatically with immigrants’ attributes, which we collect from official applicant descriptions that voters received before each referendum. Country of origin determines naturalization success [...]

Water controls the wealth of nations

Population growth is in general constrained by food production, which in turn depends on the access to water resources. At a country level, some populations use more water than they control because of their ability to import food and the virtual water required for its production. Here, we investigate the dependence of demographic growth on [...]

Rumination: Human Diversity on the National Scale

We often evaluate ecosystems according to their natural biodiversity. However we rarely see these metrics applied to human populations. Supposing we wanted to evaluate the human diversity of nations. How could this be done. Among the several methods that come to mind is the use of a genetic proxy for diversity, the y-dna haplogroup. Using [...]

Population aging and carbon emissions in OECD countries: Accounting for life-cycle and cohort effects

This paper investigates the relationship between emissions of carbon dioxide and the ongoing process of demographic transition in OECD countries. Our research is motivated by suggestions in the literature that emission-relevant consumption patterns may depend on the position in the life cycle and on the birth cohort to which people belong. We augment standard macroeconomic [...]

Quantifying Carbon Mitigation Wedges in U.S. Cities: Near-Term Strategy Analysis and Critical Review

A case study of Denver, Colorado explores the roles of three social actors—individual users, infrastructure designer-operators, and policy actors—in near-term greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in U.S. cities. Energy efficiency, renewable energy, urban design, price- and behavioral-feedback strategies are evaluated across buildings–facilities, transportation, and materials/waste sectors in cities, comparing voluntary versus regulatory action configurations. GHG mitigation [...]

Migrant destinations in an era of environmental change

► Migration theory can advance understanding of the destinations of current environmental mobility. ► There is little evidence to support claims of mass environmental migration to the global north. ► Forced or voluntary immobility in environmentally vulnerable areas may be a serious problem. ► Many environmental moves will be by individuals and not whole households. [...]

The effect of environmental change on human migration

Drawing on an increasing evidence base that has assessed elements of the influence of the environment on migration, this paper presents a new framework for understanding the effect of environmental change on migration. The framework identifies five families of drivers which affect migration decisions: economic, political, social, demographic and environmental drivers. The environment drives migration [...]

Rumination: Human Survival and The Climate Variability Hypothesis of Dr. Rick Potts: Does Past Performance Suggest Future Results?

The PBS series from 2009 entitled ‘Becoming Human’ traces the paleohistory of human evolution. One of the segments introduces a hypothesis that is a big, fat hanging curve ball for a Pecologix rumination. In the words of its progenitor Dr. Rick Potts (anthropologist), the climate variability hypo states that: “Maybe this [the 700K years of [...]